Gathunuku

Geoffrey Irungu’s article in the excellent Business Daily Africa didn’t quite read the mood right, I thought.

The IMF’s decision to ‘unlock’ loans worth Kshs4 Billion ( as part of a 2003 initiated Kshs17.7 Billion Poverty Reduction & Growth Facility lending program) has been given more gravity than it perhaps deserves. The Treasury’s Budget Outlook Paper 2007 articulates the current rather strong position of the GOK in this matter. Revenue is expected to rise to Kshs377.4 Billion with expenditure remaining largely as planned inevitably reducing the deficit needing to be financed by debt. The people at Treasury now reckon they only need to borrow Kshs8.7 Billion externally down from Kshs9.7 Billion.

So no, we didn’t get a lollipop for good behaviour, we don’t need one anymore. The carrot and stick have been severally reduced by the sensible macroeconomic policies on Harambee Avenue. Perhaps it’s best seen through Prof. Ndungu’s view of multilateral ‘donors’ (aarrrgh) as ‘advisers who reinforce GOK decided policy rather than driving the policy agenda’.

- Ramit Sethi on all things personal finance, his blog iwillteachyoutoberich is just great

-On lessons and habits one wishes they had learnt and picked up a lot earlier!

Never too late

- MainaT on why the forthcoming KenGen offload might be a case of fools rush in. Excellent commentary.

- myStocks on how they are easily head and shoulders above the rest of the NSE-esque websites. Now that’s how tech ought to be done. Stockbrokers take notes.

Maybe we are indeed at a tipping point. When an unprecedented display of self assertion replaces apathy then things can only go one way. North.

Just three months ago, the ever dynamic Peter Munga thought that remittances KTs sent home could be put to better use. Instead of the USD 1 Billion+ being remitted annually going to pay the odd bill, buying groceries and the latest in fashion, this he thought could form a major source of investment. If only KTs knew how. Hence the Kenya Diaspora Investment Forum. Put together by the Commonwealth Secretariat, Africa Recruit and the Kenya High Commission in the UK, the forum pulled in two ministers, half a dozen MPs, about a dozen CEOs and countless other professionals from Kenya all with one message - invest at home. They were taking this [us] seriously.
The world, like Bill said(as M calls William Shakespeare) is indeed but a stage and so all the men and women demanded to play their parts. So off we went to an hour of “introduction and welcome” speeches, with the High Commissioner welcoming everyone to the “say-teh of rondon” and the organisers blowing their trumpets. Perhaps I shouldn’t read too much into it but when the High Commissioner Joseph Muchemi acknowledged the presence of Norman Nyagah, the government Chief Whip and overlooked Billow Kerrow, the Shadow Finance Minister, I thought that that right there was exactly what was wrong with Kenyan politics. It was an old boys club. This was after all an investment conference with a keynote address from the Finance Minister. His nemesis, the Shadow Finance Minister’s presence was more relevant.

High Commissioner, Joseph Muchemi	Finance Minister, Amos Kimunya
Shadow Finance Minister, Billow Kerrow	Equity Bank Chairman, Peter Munga

On to business and the keynote address from Amos Kimunya. A detailed powerpoint presentation made for good reading. Macroeconomic stability was the main message. And it seems they are doing well with that at the Treasury. All key indicators were up plus a stable(and strengthening) shilling against the dollar and an import cover for up to 4-5 months. Of course exporters will make all sorts of noises about this but Kenya is still by far a net importer.

Further presentations from leaders in the private sector were even more enlightening. Dr. Ochieng’ Ogong’a, MD of the Kenya Tourism Board was of the opinion that continued growth in his sector demanded additional investment. This, he reckoned, would have to be 53% new installed bed capacity every year. Currently bed capacity is 39,000. Eddy Njoroge, MD of KenGen, highlighted opportunities in the energy sector. With installed capacity of just over 1000 megawatts, demand far outstrips supply of electricity. Obviously a need and opportunity for investment especially since private power production was already on going. Perhaps more curious were plans to build two coal power stations between 2008-2010. With climate change becoming a major problem and enthusiasm for reducing carbon emissions upping in western capitals, I’m not sure those plans were well thought through.

Jimnah Mbaru, Chairman of the NSE, went on to extol the pluses of investing in the stock exchange. Plans for an East African Exchange were mentioned, although I later found out from one of the umpteen publications on offer, that between them the Ugandan and Tanzanian exchanges have just 11 listings. James Mwangi, MD of Equity Bank, pleasantly surprised all with the dynamism of his bank. They have online banking these days. Ever so helpful for a KT miles away from home. These guys quietly did what they did best for 10-15 years and when everyone sat up to notice, they had built a financial institution like no other. Hats off. Frank Ireri, MD of HFCK and Caroline Musyoka, Director at Barclays Kenya both promised mortgages denominated in foreign currency. Fair enough but I still don’t get why mortgage rates are averaging 15% while the CBK 91Day benchmark rate is at about 5.6%. Like someone aptly pointed, 15% is a good credit card, not a mortgage.

NSE Chairman, Jimnah Mbaru	Equity Bank MD, James Mwangi
KTB MD, Dr. Ochieng’ Ogong’a	Investment professionals: how to turn this AGM-like congregation into satisfied customers?

Round table discussions brought down the meeting to wananchi. When an electrical engineer from Peterborough asked me how he could open a CDS account and who were the stock brokers to go to I realised there was a glaring dearth of info. Perhaps a sort of Mzalendo project would be helpful.

The one thing that was very visible was the enthusiasm by most KTs to invest back home. Maybe that comment by Mutumia on the now famous post is indeed true; ‘KT-ing’ and ‘nation building’ need not be mutually exclusive. With the debate that is going on about the shortage of investment opportunities over at this post and this other one, I am of the opinion that investment professionals have their work cut out. There’s a glut of capital [KT remittances, increased bank liquidity and first time investors] and obviously many opportunities. These two factors are only asking for a rendezvous and everyone is happy.

- KTs elsewhere, esp in the Americas, we blazed the trail. Amkeni and have a word with the organisers of this fantastic forum.

- Perhaps an invitation the organisers forgot to send was to the Information & Communication Ministry.

- The organisers promised to avail all presentations in digital format at http://kenyans4kenya.com. Worth looking out for.

- Anyone know if the Kenya Vision 2030 [the doc] is available in the public domain?

- NSE please sort your website!

Turns out local banks actually want to fund the restructuring of Telkom Kenya (see this story on EA Standard) but will lend KES 5.6 billion only if secured against the 9% Safcom stake the GOK is trying to offload. That 9% is worth at least double that KES5.6B and the GOK apparently needs Vodaphone’s approval to borrow on those terms.
Piece of advice Mr. Ndemo, take Vodaphone’s money. BBK, StanChart, StanBic and KCB are just being banks - trying to make money off you.

The Saturday Nation today is reporting that local Kenyan banks have agreed to fund Telkom Kenya’s continuing restructuring.

“Telkom Kenya will now retrench 6,000 workers in the next one month after banks agreed to fund the Government-driven lay-offs.

Local banks have given a total of Sh5.8 billion, which the state corporation says is enough to complete the second phase of its restructuring.[...]“

Banks lending to the government to fund a retrenchment? I must be missing something here. What’s in it for them?