Gathunuku

- Musings from Parselelo Kantai in The Africa Report on the state of the nation in the wake of last December’s elections and the tragic ensuing events. His article “Now the Hard Part” opine that the deep chasm between the ruling class and wananchi will continue to be a significant obstacle to progress on every front. Thought provoking.

- Yes those petro-dollar driven SWFs are indeed piling on influence as fast as cash. This article (free registration required) in the transcendent McKinsey Quarterly has a detailed analysis of the scale of how $140 per barrel oil is having effect on world investments. Closer to home, tales of new ventures actualised in a most determined of manner only illustrate the measure of liquidity in the GCC and other oil exporters. A major international bank is also reportedly looking to these funds for salvation.

- Word that another stock brokerage might be having problems has one inevitably wondering if this is more than just teething troubles.

- All the best to this chap, LiveQuotes is true ingenuity.

Michael Orme makes a compelling case for why this is perhaps the most apt time to invest in Zim. The man is by no means immortal and can clearly lose an election. Sooner or later he will leave and when that happens, as Mr. Orme argues, opportunities abound.

Right from a diaspora returning home with US$2-3 billion to the mother of all Marshall Plans that will surely be mounted by the Bretton Woods institutions et al, his article continues to make a strong case for investing in Zim yesterday. A reminder though that charity’s got nothing to do with it is perhaps most aptly indicated in the sentence;

“[...] providing…Zimbabwe’s 12m people with lifestyles beyond subsistence offers even juicer prospects.”

Capital doing what it does, brutally.

Another one that must whet the appetites of the bonus chasing fund managers is the following assertion;

“If ever there was a group mesmerised by money, afflicted with status anxiety and a craving for conspicuous consumption, it is the tens of millions of well-off newly middle class in the black populations of South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana.”

Indeed. How else does one explain Hummers?

- Ramit Sethi on all things personal finance, his blog iwillteachyoutoberich is just great

-On lessons and habits one wishes they had learnt and picked up a lot earlier!

Never too late

- MainaT on why the forthcoming KenGen offload might be a case of fools rush in. Excellent commentary.

- myStocks on how they are easily head and shoulders above the rest of the NSE-esque websites. Now that’s how tech ought to be done. Stockbrokers take notes.

Maybe we are indeed at a tipping point. When an unprecedented display of self assertion replaces apathy then things can only go one way. North.

Just three months ago, the ever dynamic Peter Munga thought that remittances KTs sent home could be put to better use. Instead of the USD 1 Billion+ being remitted annually going to pay the odd bill, buying groceries and the latest in fashion, this he thought could form a major source of investment. If only KTs knew how. Hence the Kenya Diaspora Investment Forum. Put together by the Commonwealth Secretariat, Africa Recruit and the Kenya High Commission in the UK, the forum pulled in two ministers, half a dozen MPs, about a dozen CEOs and countless other professionals from Kenya all with one message - invest at home. They were taking this [us] seriously.
The world, like Bill said(as M calls William Shakespeare) is indeed but a stage and so all the men and women demanded to play their parts. So off we went to an hour of “introduction and welcome” speeches, with the High Commissioner welcoming everyone to the “say-teh of rondon” and the organisers blowing their trumpets. Perhaps I shouldn’t read too much into it but when the High Commissioner Joseph Muchemi acknowledged the presence of Norman Nyagah, the government Chief Whip and overlooked Billow Kerrow, the Shadow Finance Minister, I thought that that right there was exactly what was wrong with Kenyan politics. It was an old boys club. This was after all an investment conference with a keynote address from the Finance Minister. His nemesis, the Shadow Finance Minister’s presence was more relevant.

High Commissioner, Joseph Muchemi	Finance Minister, Amos Kimunya
Shadow Finance Minister, Billow Kerrow	Equity Bank Chairman, Peter Munga

On to business and the keynote address from Amos Kimunya. A detailed powerpoint presentation made for good reading. Macroeconomic stability was the main message. And it seems they are doing well with that at the Treasury. All key indicators were up plus a stable(and strengthening) shilling against the dollar and an import cover for up to 4-5 months. Of course exporters will make all sorts of noises about this but Kenya is still by far a net importer.

Further presentations from leaders in the private sector were even more enlightening. Dr. Ochieng’ Ogong’a, MD of the Kenya Tourism Board was of the opinion that continued growth in his sector demanded additional investment. This, he reckoned, would have to be 53% new installed bed capacity every year. Currently bed capacity is 39,000. Eddy Njoroge, MD of KenGen, highlighted opportunities in the energy sector. With installed capacity of just over 1000 megawatts, demand far outstrips supply of electricity. Obviously a need and opportunity for investment especially since private power production was already on going. Perhaps more curious were plans to build two coal power stations between 2008-2010. With climate change becoming a major problem and enthusiasm for reducing carbon emissions upping in western capitals, I’m not sure those plans were well thought through.

Jimnah Mbaru, Chairman of the NSE, went on to extol the pluses of investing in the stock exchange. Plans for an East African Exchange were mentioned, although I later found out from one of the umpteen publications on offer, that between them the Ugandan and Tanzanian exchanges have just 11 listings. James Mwangi, MD of Equity Bank, pleasantly surprised all with the dynamism of his bank. They have online banking these days. Ever so helpful for a KT miles away from home. These guys quietly did what they did best for 10-15 years and when everyone sat up to notice, they had built a financial institution like no other. Hats off. Frank Ireri, MD of HFCK and Caroline Musyoka, Director at Barclays Kenya both promised mortgages denominated in foreign currency. Fair enough but I still don’t get why mortgage rates are averaging 15% while the CBK 91Day benchmark rate is at about 5.6%. Like someone aptly pointed, 15% is a good credit card, not a mortgage.

NSE Chairman, Jimnah Mbaru	Equity Bank MD, James Mwangi
KTB MD, Dr. Ochieng’ Ogong’a	Investment professionals: how to turn this AGM-like congregation into satisfied customers?

Round table discussions brought down the meeting to wananchi. When an electrical engineer from Peterborough asked me how he could open a CDS account and who were the stock brokers to go to I realised there was a glaring dearth of info. Perhaps a sort of Mzalendo project would be helpful.

The one thing that was very visible was the enthusiasm by most KTs to invest back home. Maybe that comment by Mutumia on the now famous post is indeed true; ‘KT-ing’ and ‘nation building’ need not be mutually exclusive. With the debate that is going on about the shortage of investment opportunities over at this post and this other one, I am of the opinion that investment professionals have their work cut out. There’s a glut of capital [KT remittances, increased bank liquidity and first time investors] and obviously many opportunities. These two factors are only asking for a rendezvous and everyone is happy.

- KTs elsewhere, esp in the Americas, we blazed the trail. Amkeni and have a word with the organisers of this fantastic forum.

- Perhaps an invitation the organisers forgot to send was to the Information & Communication Ministry.

- The organisers promised to avail all presentations in digital format at http://kenyans4kenya.com. Worth looking out for.

- Anyone know if the Kenya Vision 2030 [the doc] is available in the public domain?

- NSE please sort your website!